Fireball whiskey is closing in on Allen's coffee brandy in chase to be Maine's favorite booze

Three 50-milliliter 'nip' bottles of Fireball Cinnamon Whisky lay on a table with a pack of cards.

I used to make sure every year that I kept abreast of the annual sales figures in Maine for Allen's Coffee Flavored Brandy, which for years has been far and away the state's best selling brand of booze.

But it has been a while since I got the official yearly totals for all liquor sales in the state, and just when I was gearing up to ask the state Bureau of Alcoholic Beverages and Lottery Operations (BABLO) for recent statistics, the Portland Press Herald published a story on liquor sales totals for 2017.

The PPH story does a pretty good job of explaining how the dominance of Allen's Coffee Flavored Brandy seems to be slipping while a new upstart (albeit one with a national profile) has bitten off a sizeable market share in the state, one nip at a time.

Fireball Cinnamon Whisky, the rocketing sales of which the BDN wrote about in January 2016, is now the second-most popular liquor in Maine. If its sales growth does not slow down significantly over the next 11 months, it will displace Allen's CFB from the top spot in 2018.

But before I go too much further, I need to point out that I think a couple of the sales totals reported by the PPH on Sunday are inaccurate. On Tuesday, after I read the PPH story, I requested and received the same data from BABLO -- including what I believe are incorrect tallies for 2013.

Four years ago, I received the 2013 liquor sales totals from the state -- which the BDN reported on -- and those tallies are much different from the totals for that same year that BABLO sent me this week.
In addition, the 2013 sales totals I got Tuesday are way off compared to other years immediately before and after 2013.

For example, according to my archived data $11.7 million of Allens CFB was sold in Maine in 2012. For 2013, the Allens CFB numbers I have are $11.4 million (what I got 4 years ago) and $5.9 million (what I got this week). Then for 2014, the total I have for Allens CFB is $11 million.

If the correct sales total for Allens CFB is $5.9 million, why would they drop by nearly half from 2012 to 2013, and then nearly double again in 2014? It doesn’t make sense. And, if it really happened that way, then the Maine media completely missed a pretty big business news story. I think the $11.4 million sales total for 2013 is the accurate figure -- not the $5.9 million figure. I don't think any of the sales data for 2013 sent out in recent weeks by BABLO is accurate.

At any rate, it doesn't really make a difference to the main thrust of the PPH story, which is that Allen's CFB sales are declining while those of Fireball -- and, to a lesser extent, Tito's Handmade Vodka -- are taking off. But there are a few more things I want to point out on this topic that aren't mentioned, at least not explicitly, in the PPH piece.

• Sales of Fireball already have surpassed another longtime favorite in Maine: Captain Morgan's Spiced Rum. In 2016, Captain Morgan's had $6.1M in sales in Maine, versus $5.5M for Fireball, but last year trailed Fireball by nearly $2.2M. Captain Morgan's, which had ranked 2nd in sales in Maine since at least 2009, came in fourth in 2017 (not third) by also trailing Tito's Handmade Vodka by nearly $300,000 in sales revenue.

• Other popular brands also have had declining sales, among them Orloff Vodka (80 proof), Bacardi Light rum, and non-flavored Absolut all have been perennial Top 5 brands in Maine but are getting pushed down the list by Fireball and Tito's.

• Allens’ sales revenue has been declining in Maine since 2009, when it peaked at $12.95 million.

• Fireball's annual sales increases have been astounding. Fireball's total sales (all bottles sizes) more than doubled over the prior year in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and grew by roughly 150 percent in 2016 and again in 2017.

• Most of that growth has been driven by the popularity of its 50ml 'nips,' which now rank 2nd statewide behind Allens CFB's half gallon. Fireball nips generated only $250,000 in sales for Fireball in 2013 -- not even in the top 100 -- but in 2014 sales of the nips jumped 250 percent to $634,922. The following year, they more than doubled again, netting $1.4 million in gross sales. In 2016, they doubled again to more than $2.8 million. Last year, they jumped $1.9 million (only 67%) to $4.7 million sold in Maine.

• The increase in popularity in Fireball has not been all that "organic," as some have suggested. It used to be part of the Dr. McGillicuddy's lineup until 2007, when it was rebranded simply as "Fireball" and the fictitious doctor's name was dropped from the label. Sazerac (which makes Fireball) then put forth a significant marketing effort to popularize the renamed product which, apparently, has worked remarkably well. More about that marketing effort can be read here.

And, just in case Sazerac is looking for a catchy song -- or perhaps marionette spokespeople -- to use to boost the ongoing meteoric trajectory of Fireball, I'll leave you with this: