I can't claim to be an expert, but my guess is that when a place sees its population decrease, local economics tend to be behind it. In Maine, where there were no wars or famines or widespread catastrophic disasters between 2000 and 2010, I'm willing to bet that economics is the reason two counties and more than 100 towns and townships saw their citizenry shrink over the past decade.
In looking at the list of towns, cities, plantations and unorganized territories in Maine that lost population, the closure or layoffs at pulp or paper mills or military bases are two of the obvious culprits.
Old Town's population shrunk by 290 people in the same decade Georgia-Pacific shut down its mills there, while Winter Harbor lost 472 residents, or 48 percent of its population - nearly half! - after the Navy closed its base at nearby Schoodic Point in 2002. Madawaska, Rumford, Mexico, Millinocket, East Millinocket - all mill towns - have lost both population and mill jobs since 2000. Brunswick, Bath, Harpswell and Topsham all saw their populations decrease, which isn't surprising considering the gradual closure toward the end of the decade of the nearby Brunswick Naval Air Station.
By my count, 163 municipalities or townships lost population between 2000 and 2010, but not all those towns can easily attribute their population decrease to a nearby mill or military base shutting down. Some decreases occurred in places where you think they wouldn't, such as in relatively affluent coastal towns that generally are considered people magnets. It's not surprising that several coastal towns in chronically economically depressed Washington County lost population, as that county did as a whole; it is surprising that several coastal towns in Hancock, Knox and York counties (each of which gained population overall) saw their numbers decline. Among them: Mount Desert, Southwest Harbor, Stonington, Camden, Rockland, Ogunquit and Kennebunkport.
The likely culprit in these towns (or the major one, anyway) is rising property valuations and taxes. All of these towns have classic coastal Maine waterfront properties that are highly desirable but not so affordable to people of modest means, as most Mainers are. Comparatively wealthy people from away often can afford to buy these properties, and they seem to be, according to a planner quoted in this Bangor Daily News story. Locals short on cash who can't afford the high property taxes look to sell out, and people who have managed to stay wealthy despite the global economic malaise get a chance to buy in - but they don't necessarily change their residency and then get counted as local residents by the Census Bureau. This demographic shift is why some of these scenic coastal towns have declining populations.
But the biggest numeric drop in terms of most residents lost seems to have nothing to do with property taxes, the closure of a military base or layoffs at a local pulp or paper mill.
Thomaston in Knox County lost 967 residents, or more than 25 percent of its population, between 2000 and 2010. The nearby town of Warren gained approximately the same number Thomaston lost, and saw its population increase by more than 25 percent. The reason? Maine State Prison, and its inmate population, was moved from Thomaston to Warren in 2002.
For a complete list of the towns in Maine that lost population since 2000, check out Sheet 3 of this spreadsheet.
